The “Green” energy race is heating up. Stakes are higher than Cheech & Chong at a Willie Nelson concert in the Himalayas. Global powers are jockeying for position, placing their bets, and the money is flying. No doubt, it is going to be an interesting ride over the next two or three decades. By even the most conservative estimates, the projected increase in demand for “low-carbon energy technology” is exploding. For the sake of argument, I have selected electric cars as an example for a case study. In 2011 there were roughly 16,000 hybrid electric vehicles sold in the US. As of 2020, that number has grown to around 1.7 million. Estimates suggest that by 2040, that number will increase to somewhere in the range of 10 million1, representing a 62,400% increase over three decades.
Along with that increase in demand for the vehicles will come a corresponding increase in demand for the materials needed to make the them; lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, etc. As you can see from the graphic below, demand for those commodities is headed to the moon.
Let's look at the Lithium projections. Again, projections vary depending on who you ask, but most models predict demand for Lithium will increase nearly 10-fold by 2050.2 These numbers may not mean anything to you. I understand that numbers are hard for a lot of people. For the mathematically challenged, let me assure you, these are staggering jumps in demand, and access to these materials is going to be a serious issue for the good ol’ US of A. In terms of Lithium specifically, the US may have lucked out recently by discovering massive deposits in Nevada, otherwise Chile and Australia and China would have us by the balls.
Other metals, Cobalt for instance, will be a little trickier. Currently, the Democratic Republic of Congo controls nearly half of global Cobalt reserves. And, in case you missed it, the Chinese have been quietly expanding their footprint all over Africa. Between 2007 and 2020, they have invested twice as much in African infrastructure projects as the next four countries combined.3 Some of these projects, such as high-speed rail, have been miserably unprofitable in China. Rather than give up on a money-losing idea, they took their idea to Africa. These projects were marketed to African countries as a vital infrastructure upgrade that would “create jobs and economic development and growth and blah blah blah” all the usual promises. Instead, the projects have also proven to be money-losers in Africa. I don’t want to suggest that this was intentional, but regardless of the Chinese intention, the Africans have been locked into massive loans that they are now unable to pay back on a number of these projects. Then, naturally, China swoops in and saves these failing endeavors by taking over majority ownership of the rail. BAM. Emeril Legasse. Now the Chinese control a new high-speed railway on another continent.
Then they do that same thing with a Cobalt mine. BAM. Now they control a Cobalt mine. As of 2022, the Chinese owned or had a stake in 15 of 19 Cobalt mines in Africa.4 Then they buy up a Copper mine, and a Gold mine, and a Manganese mine, and an Iron mine, and so on. Conveniently, they also just so happen to have these railways under their control which can then potentially be modified and used as cheap transport for these metals since very few people are riding them. As with most mining operations, it’s usually local Africans doing the mining for close to slave wages, and then the Chinese owners make off with the fruits of their labor and sell them for a massive profit, leaving behind a polluted pit and a bunch of Africans that are just as poor as they were before the Chinese showed up.
The Chinese are crafty. They lock these countries in to debt traps, and before you know it, the Chinese control infrastructure and natural resources and various other industries. With that financial power comes control over African politicians, who are now in their pockets. If a country still finds itself buried in debt and has run out resources and industries to auctions off and is completely out of options for ways to meet their financial obligations, the last step is being forced to let China build a military base in Africa.5 Be on the lookout for more of those coming soon! In a hilarious twist, the Chinese have stolen a page directly out of the American playback and...well...they've executed it better than our government has, no question.
When it comes to raw materials and processing capacity, China has a stranglehold on most of the world, and they know it. They are using this advantage to quietly move in to other countries such as Australia, where they own a majority stake in the largest Lithium deposit.6 They have also moved in on South America. Meanwhile, they are leveraging their position to scoop up real estate all over the world, including the US and Canada. They're working out deals to move businesses over here. They are playing the long game and it's paying off.
Sadly, on top of all that, the US government was about 20 years behind the curve of the not stupid governments who saw the writing on the wall and invested early and often in developing alternative energy sources. Now the folks in DC are scrambling to play catch up. On top of THAT, there's that whole other side story about how American infrastructure is old as fuck and our power grid is not equipped to handle the predicted spike in electricity demands and yadda yadda. If that’s not a recipe for disaster, I don’t know what is.
Anyway…this piece has gone on way longer than I planned. I'm a chatty b*tch today. Let’s keep our eyes on it, guys! I suspect it might turn in to the Wild West out here. YEEHAW! Our government is clearly pushing hard towards "green" or “renewable” or “sustainable” or “clean” energy or whichever catchy buzz word they’re using today. Electric cars. Solar panels. Computer chips. All that shit. If I was a betting man, and I totally am, I would place a sizable wager on the proposition that China ain't just gonna smile and share these natural resources with us as a favor to an old friend. Keep in mind, we kinda sorta maybe owe them a little bit of money; somewhere in the ballpark of $1 trillion.7 I predict that our government will be forced into a position where they have to cut shitty deals with the Chinese government that involve everyone getting their pants pulled down and bent over the counter.
Don't worry, though. One thing we are capable of producing in the US…is KY Jelly!8 That’s comforting, isn’t it!? Thank god we still make something in this country so we’ll at least be able to lube up before we take it in the ass!